It’s crystal ball time!
My predictions for 2025.
I used to do this every year, with mixed success. Let’s give it a whirl again.
For the year 2025, I predict:
It’ll be the year of AI, which will continue to disrupt across all aspects of our work and our lives in general. In the media, it will lead to further job losses and concerns about the impartiality and credibility of news sources. (See later.)
In Australia and around the world, attempts to shut down or legislate great change to social-media platforms will be largely unsuccessful. Politicians will lose their nerve, and consumers will always find a way to get around rules they don’t like.
There will be changes at the top of underperforming big businesses, including major media groups.
Despite window dressing about implementing “cultural change”, at least one media company will be exposed for having protected individuals responsible for appalling behaviour towards colleagues. Sadly, some past offenders will never be revealed or face any consequences.
2025 is the make-or-break year for the Australian Radio Network’s grand plan to fully network its two radio franchises. I think we will see individuals, on air and off, walking away with very large amounts of money and leaving behind a much-depleted and more vulnerable business. (See later.)
In the big picture, we’ll see the further shrinking of broadcast media, with further consolidation of ownership, and maybe even the disappearance of brands we’ve known for decades. Recent events indicate this will begin with, but not be limited to, Foxtel and Channel Ten.
Media companies will lobby for, and probably gain, significant concessions from government.
More on-air upheaval at major radio stations and on television, with at least one popular personality leaving altogether or taking a significant step back from day-to-day duties.
In Brisbane:
The Metro bus network will get a more appropriate name. (This could be wishful thinking, but it really ought to happen if this “new world city” doesn’t want to face international embarrassment.)
More changes in the CBD, where business closures and empty retail and commercial space will continue to be a major concern.
Because time is running out, Brisbane Olympics and Paralympics organisers will commit to an infrastructure plan that makes almost nobody truly happy, we really can’t afford and we will struggle to deliver.
Along with launching my new online project, I will reinvigorate my campaign to Bring Back Warana. (I also have a grand plan to monetise some of my efforts, by adding premium content, because I can’t keep doing it all for free.)
A prominent sporting team will enjoy* a series of wins, followed by a great many losses.
In politics:
Australia will get a new prime minister, but not necessarily the one you think.
State Government belt-tightening will hit hard at the public service but (hopefully) job losses will be minimal.
In America, there will be a revolving door of senior cabinet ministers and other political appointees in the Trump administrations (as there was last time). Donald Trump himself won’t see out four years in office.
In the UK, a new leader will emerge to replace Keir Starmer, if not in 2025, then certainly before the end of his term.
Regime change will occur in several other nations, not always for the better.
And finally:
There will be big news from space.
A little detail on some of those predictions:
AI will continue to make its presence felt. We already not only have AI writing hundreds of articles a day for publishers big and small, but Newscorp is experimenting with converting scripts to audio by cloning the voice of its real, human talent. (You can read about that here).
Google has a technology called Notebook LM, which will create podcasts from a range of sources, from your own documents to web pages and YouTube videos. Here’s one based on a popular video from my Radio Bert channel, about British TV series The Bill:
Yes, the American voices may be distracting (especially given the topic), but the technology is incredible. The software scraped a video I recorded nearly two years ago, reorganised the content, and turned it into a two-person podcast in less than 15 minutes with absolutely minimal button-pushing by me. Notebook LM has been around for about 18 months, is freely available and is being updated on the fly — so just imagine what else is available to the professionals and what’s in the pipeline.
I’m told the next big thing in Australian radio is AI that can modify a human announcer’s voice, making it younger or older or whatever, so that one person can host shows not just as themselves but as an invented identity as well. It may already be in use.
Networking and/or other cost-cutting. Faced with declining revenue, all of the commercial publishers and broadcasters are looking to cut their costs to stay out of the red. That means more of the job losses we’ve already seen, along with other savings such as replacing people with technology (see above).
Something’s got to give at ARN. The Australian Radio Newtork, owner of the KIIS and Gold brands, took a big gamble when it signed Kyle Sandilands and Jackie Henderson each to $100 million 10-year contracts with the view to creating a national Breakfast show. What the current ARN bosses thought was a lay-down misère (Sandilands said they’d be number one in the Victorian market by the end of 2024) became a headache when the Kyle and Jackie O Show was not welcomed by Melbourne audiences, who have overwhelmingly shown a preference for home-based talent.
And, after their original plan to buy competitor Southern Cross Austereo (SCA), to get their hands on the Triple M network, fell over in early 2024, the honchos at ARN are now hoping to build up their own Gold network. As I understand it, the grand plan is to put Melbourne-based Christian O’Connell in as networked Breakfast host — an ambition stymied by the stubborn local success in Sydney of Amanda Keller and Brendan Jones on the station formerly known as WSFM. (Just as the success of Kip Wightman and Robin Bailey on KIIS in Brisbane became a further hurdle to the plans to extend the reach of Kyle and Jackie O.)
The local rumour mill has turned its attention to River 949. It’s not actually a Brisbane station but is situated close enough to be heard across much of the city. The gossip that it will be rebranded Gold and rolled out as a new thing across the big smoke have gained traction in recent days with reports of the imminent sale of River’s real estate in Ipswich. Making an official move to Brisbane would require approval from the regulator, but there is a precedent here with 4IP, which became Radio 10, then Stereo 10, then 4TAB. Some people in The Switch, let alone the other Brisbane licencees, won’t be happy if this happens, but ARN could make a strong case that the industry is struggling and this is a necessary for its survival. It’s all a long way from the days when FM licences were being auctioned off for hundreds of millions of dollars.
Meanwhile just before Christmas, it was announced that former Nine executive Michael Stephenson would assume the role of chief operating officer at ARN. Speculation abounds about his future role in a company that desperately needs turning around.
Facing the music at Nine. Despite promises to implement the recommendations of a scathing cultural review, Nine Entertainment is being accused of squibbing by either not dealing with the bullies and their enablers at all — and this applies to people in very senior roles — or allowing them to leave the business without exposure or even reprimand. I have heard allegations concerning two individuals, who I can’t name for legal reasons. At the same time, other people are being unfairly smeared. I wrote that this would the case and it’s not good enough.
The spotlight should fall on the Nine Radio division, not only because it was home to 60% of complaints reported to the independent review, but because it faces serious business challenges. In Brisbane, ratings at 4BC are near rock bottom, and unless they are immediately and overwhelming successful (unlikely), the introduction of new talent at Sydney’s 2GB in Mornings and Drive will come at a cost. Audiences aren’t what they used to be and talk radio shouldn’t be either.
Other media companies should also get their houses in order, because this is a situation where Nine is not “the one” but one of many with an appalling human relations track record. We heard allegations regarding Channel Seven early in 2024, and there’s plenty of smoke surrounding other enterprises.
Uncanny …
If you doubt my powers of prediction, here’s a recent instance of me being 100% accurate:
*Corrected on December 31 to replace “suffer” with “enjoy”. What was I thinking?