My predictions for 2024

A few thoughts on the future of local media and politics.

In the 1990s and early Noughties, it used to be my thing at this time of year to publish a list of New Year’s predictions. I had a high level of success because I was deliberately vague (“a musical act will emerge from nowhere and have a global hit”).

Back in the day, I even had some inside knowledge, so I was uncannily accurate on one or two matters.

This year, I’m not going to play that game. I’m restricting myself to just two areas of interest — media and politics. More on the latter later.

When it comes to media, I will, of necessity, stray a little from the Mister Brisbane brief because what happens in that realm is very much tied to national and global trends and events.

And sadly, my overarching prediction is the further decline of “local” media.

American pundit Janice Min recently told CNBC, that the “days are numbered” for legacy media companies, and that the media will be dominated by “three, certainly no more than five” major players. Most of those will be tech companies rather than traditional broadcasters.

If that’s America, what about here in Australia? The same, but sooner?

As Paramount struggles to hook up with Discovery Warner in the United States, the future of its local offshoot, the Ten network, is looking very shaky indeed.

Many pundits expect Ten to be sold — but how does that play out? Does anybody even want its broadcasting business?

If Ten falls, maybe that buys time for Seven and Nine to rearrange the deck chairs, but — even with likely government support (by loosening their obligations to produce certain types of content, abandoning any idea of charging them for their operating licences, and tightening the anti-siphoning laws for major sporting events) — the days of broadcast television are clearly numbered.

Internal consolidation followed by partnerships with the huge global players are inevitable, if not in 2024, then certainly over the next five years.

Australian radio has seen two big plays lately that will shape the immediate future. Both involve ARN, which has made a bold but somewhat complicated bid for its rival SCA that will see the potentially most profitable national radio brands under the same ownership. This will put significant pressure on the other players.

ARN’s KIIS network has also just sealed a deal with its Sydney superstars Kyle Sandilands and Jackie Henderson that will see them earn $200 million over the next decade. That’s a big gamble and one that can only pay off if ARN gets more bang for its buck from the Kyle and Jackie O Show and is able to make significant savings elsewhere.

KIIS has already announced that the Sydney duo will replace the local Melbourne breakfast show in 2024 and further expansion into other markets, including Brisbane, is inevitable.

I’m a big fan of local radio and television (what’s left of it), but I can’t see any way forward for the commercial players than to further limit the amount of programming specifically made in and for smaller markets such as Brisbane.

Where does that leave the likes of B105, Nova 106.9 and Triple M 104.5, which are all hovering around 10 to 12% of total audience share, and all have significant financial investment in their local breakfast programs? They may well be forced to follow ARN’s lead.

More broadly, with Spotify, Amazon Music, Apple and others delivering personalised playlists directly to their customers’ ear buds, is there a role for a jukebox where somebody else selects the songs? And are local “personalities” talking about geographically proximate happenings a big enough draw to stop a shift away from music radio?

As for news-talk radio, Nine network’s brands 2GB and 3AW are doing well in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. However, talk is costly to run and is in competition not only with other broadcasters but also with targeted podcasts and streamed programs that are produced cheaply and are beginning to attract serious advertiser interest.

It hurts me to say this, but I can’t see how, as a business, Brisbane’s Radio 4BC is better off now than it was four years ago when it was almost entirely on relay from Sydney. The ratings numbers and other demographics don’t appear to have shifted, and while advertising revenue may be up — and I don’t know if it is — is it enough to deliver a profit into the future?

(Mind you, it’s not easy to increase audience share when your star signing in the Drive shift tells people who plan to vote Labor in the next state election that they are not welcome to listen to the station. Yes, that really happened.)*

Maybe the elections and other big news stories will attract listeners to talk radio in 2024, but it seems to me that the people who are really engaged with the political process these days are doing it on social media, where they have a greater sense of control and belonging.

It’s worth remembering that politics is a turn off for many people and that even carefully manufactured outrage about big issues can’t be sustained forever.

At the end of the day, it’s a mug’s game pushing just one side of politics 24/7, because you end up preaching only to a choir whose members may not be the people best positioned to purchase the advertisers’ products.

ABC Brisbane is also in the ratings doldrums, so there has been no lateral movement of the talk audience along the AM dial. Its answer to declining numbers has been to reshuffle the same deck of talent that’s been in place for a long time (and at one point in 2023 achieved historically low ratings).

Time for some fresh (although not necessarily young) blood, and for the national broadcaster to start catering for the audience that commercial media won’t touch — the great and growing number of Australians aged 65 and older — rather than compete with commercial channels the for the 30- and 40-somethings.

For radio stations, the answer to a declining broadcast audience is slicing and dicing their existing content, and creating new content, for podcasts and social media.

All the networks have started doing this, but they will need to redouble their efforts and find new niches to fill. Their competition is no longer just each other, it’s start-ups that can be as small as a single person in a home-built studio who doesn’t need to deal with regulators, report to shareholders or even necessarily earn an income.

Audiences are switching off from broadcast radio, just as vast numbers of readers have abandoned traditional dead-tree newspapers. More newspaper closures are a certainty; it’s just a matter of when somebody has the courage to pull the plug on the presses that print the once-mighty metropolitan titles.

All eyes will be on Rupert Murdoch, who will be 93 in March and has already stepped away from day-to-day running of his media colossus.

His passing — which could still be years away — will trigger a slew of activity as his heirs scramble to close down his long-unprofitable pet projects and fight over the spoils.

Even without that change, the media landscape will be vastly different this time next year.

(Disclaimer: the author had a long career in newspapers, much of it spent working for what is now NewsCorp, and more recently worked for 4BC and, very briefly, for the ABC.)

POLITICS, BRIEFLY

Well, as predicted in my previous missive, the blood has been spilled and Queensland has a new Premier in Steven Miles. In the coming year, thanks to state and local elections, it’s possible that there will be another premier and, less likely, a new lord mayor.

The faces may change, and the political balance may shift, but the key issues will remain: the housing crisis, youth crime, public transport, and a looming global event (the 2032 Olympics) that we really can’t afford (and many of us don’t want).

I don’t think Labor’s Tracey Price (whose profile is so low that I had to use Google to find her name) is seriously going to worry Adrian Schrinner for the lord mayoralty. People who claim to know such things tell me that her future is in state or federal politics.

In an alternative universe, Jonathan Sriranganathan, would have some chance of becoming mayor in keeping with recent gains for the Greens at other levels of politics. For too many, however, he’s seen as an extreme and divisive figure.

The prominent and powerful (for now) in the media have already decided that David Crisafulli will lead the LNP to victory in the state election. From this distance, that’s the most likely outcome — Labor has lost a good chunk of grassroots support — but it’s not the slam-dunk that many seem to assume. Miles may yet come from nowhere.

At some point in coming months, Queenslanders will demand that the LNP, as the alternative government, stop reminding us how bad things are and start coming up with funded policies and a timetable for their implementation.

It’s easy to promise solutions to the affordable housing shortage, hospital ramping and youth crime when you don’t have to find the money to make it happen. Where will the funds to fix the system come from?

Would a “small government” conservative party really raise taxes so it can build houses at cost, employ more doctors, nurses and police, and enlarge the prison system so it can back up its tough talk with actual punishment for offenders?

Or will it slash the public service, cut back on spending elsewhere and reward the big end of town with corporate welfare policies?

As for Labor, what’s the current premier going to that will differentiate himself and his factionally-forged team from his predecessor?

Before we vote, we deserve some answers.

©2023 Brett Debritz. If I’ve inadvertently used copyrighted material, failed to give credit where it’s due, written or said something you disagree with, or otherwise upset or unexpectedly delighted you, please leave a comment, email me or connect with me at @debritz on X or @brettdebritz on Threads. I also have an experimental YouTube site, @radiobert. Links are provided as a courtesy; I take no responsibility for their contents or give any warranty of their veracity. Illustrations: Bing Image Creator

*His ratings dropped in the next survey, so I guess that’s a win for him if not for the station’s shareholders or advertisers.