Radio warning: 'Too late to save yourself'
The big decisions about who stays on air and who doesn't are being made this week.
27 August ratings update: B105 retains no.1 spot overall and in breakfast. 4BC down across all shifts, including a huge drop in evening audience. Full post to come.
I wasn’t going to write a radio ratings post today, but this emerged in my messages on Sunday night:
Survey 5 on Tuesday. This is the survey that will decide line-ups for 2025. Some decisions have already been made. But after Tuesday 9.30am, it’s too late to save yourself!
Basically, my correspondent was saying that the management at radio networks will be looking to the survey results before making, or confirming, line-up (and maybe even format) decisions for next year,
It’s probably fair to say that the B105 line-up of Stav Davidson, Abby Coleman and Matt Acton are safe as houses. They’ve recently broken away from the leading pack in the ratings and even an average result tomorrow shouldn’t affect them in the short term.
The bigger problem for them comes if the Australian Radio Network’s revised offer for B105’s parent company, Southern Cross Austereo, goes ahead. ARN is mainly interested in acquiring the Triple M network, so its new offer could see B105 — one of the most successful members of the once-dominant Today network — fall into the hands of partner bidder Australian Community Media.
ACM, a regional newspaper group, will almost certainly want to make savings on its acquisitions which would include some loss-making TV assets.
Elsewhere, some are predicting changes at ABC Brisbane which, apart from shuffling the deck this year and a change in breakfast necessitated by Spencer Howson’s decision to leave in 2017, has had the same talent line-up for more than a generation.
In fact, incumbency is an issue across the board in Brisbane radio. In breakfast, it’s pretty much been the same voices on air since the turn of the century (or before) —Greg “Marto” Martin, Robin Bailey, Kip Wightman, Ash Bradnam, David “Luttsy” Luterall, Laurel Edwards, Gary Clare, Mark Hine and Bob Gallagher along with all of the ABC’s daytime and evening line-up.
I’m the last person to suggest that people have nothing to contribute as they get older, but having the same people in the same jobs for so long is unusual in what’s regarded as a volatile industry that’s responsive to changes in public taste. As much as I’ve enjoyed some of my previous gigs, and perhaps could have stayed a longer in some, I couldn’t imagine still doing the same thing I was doing 20 years ago.
You’d expect some people to change to other media, move behind the scenes, go into management, or leave altogether to spend more time with their families. But, by and large, that hasn’t happened. There have been some cross-network defections, different pairings and additions in co-starring or supporting roles, but it’s still the same main people on the breakfast menu.
Maybe it’s indicative of where radio sits in the changing media landscape, but that’s a discussion for another day.
Or maybe this time we will finally see a big shake-up on the Brisbane airwaves.
While there’s a sense of “it ain’t broke, why fix it”, profits are down and the industry is consolidating across the board. If B105 continues to break away from the pack, there may be the appetite to renew line-ups elsewhere.
KIIS’s Bailey and Wightman were given a reprieve when the networking of Kyle and Jackie O Show into Melbourne earlier this year failed to set the Yarra on fire.
Unless Kyle Sandilands and Jackie “O” Henderson fire up this survey, it’s unlikely they’ll be networked into Brisbane anytime soon. (ARN will also be bearing in mind that the show has received criticism for its R-rated content — something its management seems to have no control over — and whether that crudeness is a good fit for other markets.)
My guess is that the ABC — which had a shocking 2023 ratings-wise and is under new senior management down south — and at least one of the FM stations will press the reset button soon.
At news-talk station 4BC, there’s a sense that the current breakfast show of Laurel, Gary and Mark has run its race. 4BC gave the show a lifeline after its longtime home, 4KQ, was closed down, but it’s grated against the station’s (albeit largely unsuccessful) news-talk content.
Putting in a shock jock (or two) at breakfast is no guarantee of success, however.
The irony for the Nine Radio-owned station is that the likely election of a conservative LNP state government in October — something some of its on-air talent have been lobbying for — could be its death knell.
Right-wing talk radio works best when there’s a left-wing government to kick. And, on recent numbers, it’s barely working when that is the case.
Perhaps tomorrow’s numbers will provide some clarity about the future.
It seems to me that the question is: how long do they keep throwing good money after bad trying to nurture or find a top-rating talk personality in the mold of Sydney’s Ben Fordham and Ray Hadley, or Melbourne’s Ross Stevenson and Russel Howcroft?
Suggestions include Peter Fegan and Sofie Formica (solo or as a double act), and Peter Gleeson. The problem is that none of them are rating well enough where they are, demonstrating a strong personal following, to warrant promotion to breakfast.
Bill McDonald has done well in mornings (although not so much in recent surveys) and it would seem well-advised to leave him there in that important job.
Other names being kicked around include everybody who has ever worked in radio or television (Kay McGrath and/or Rod Young, Luke Bradnam, Paul Burt?).
Somebody at Nine must be kicking themselves that they allowed Ace Radio to pick up a lease on 4BH and run it as an oldies music station with veteran “Barbecue” Bob Gallagher in the breakfast seat and the rest on relay from the deep south. At least they get a cut of the money BH must be making on it low-budget, better rating (than BC) offering.
As for the persistent rumours that Spencer Howson is about the make a return to the Brisbane airwaves after some fill-in gigs on ABC Gold Coast: don’t hold your breath but stranger things have happened.
When I reached out (as I hate saying), Howson told me: “I can confirm that I haven’t been asked to cohost breakfast with Stav and Susie [O’Neill from Nova, presumably] on 4BH.”
Disclosure: Brett Debritz used to work at 4BC and, very briefly in a paid capacity (but for many years as an unpaid contributor) at the ABC, where his input is apparently not welcome.
As usual, a mature and balanced assesssment of Brisbane radio...it must be time for change surely on the ABC and 4BC.